Monday, April 1, 2013

A statistical look at the past three seasons

Since the Stars are at the 60 game mark of the 2012-13 season, I thought I’d look back statistically at the past three seasons under head coach Chad Johnson.  I'm sort of a stats geek, so this stuff is always interesting to me.

Before this season, the USHL regular season consisted of 60 games played per team.  This season, the league increased that number to 64 games.  I’ve been told that the league is going back to 60 games for the 2013-14 season.

2012-13 season (through 60 games)
Win-Loss record:  36-21-3 (75 points)
Winning percentage:  .625% (3rd place in USHL Western Conference)
Goals for:  202
Goals against:  180
Penalty minute totals:  1,495 (most in USHL)
Powerplay percentage:  15.61% (ranked 15th overall out of 16 teams)
Powerplay goals scored:  32
Penalty Kill percentage:  77.4% (ranked 16th overall out of 16 teams)
Shorthanded goals scored:  10
Leading scorer:  Eric Scheid 57 points (23g, 34a)
Average home attendance:  3,922 (first overall in the USHL)
Playoffs:  ??

2011-12 season
Win-Loss record:  38-18-4 (79 points)
Winning percentage:  .658% (1st place in USHL Western Conference)
Goals for:  214
Goals against:  172
Penalty minute totals:  1,424 (most in USHL)
Powerplay percentage:  23.18% (ranked 3rd overall out of 16 teams)
Powerplay goals scored:  51
Penalty Kill percentage:  81.70% (ranked 11th overall out of 16 teams)
Shorthanded goals scored:  4
Leading scorer:  Kevin Roy 104 points (54g, 50a)
Average home attendance:  3,929 (first overall in the USHL)
Playoffs:  First round bye; Won second round with a 3-1 series win over Fargo; Lost third round to Waterloo, 1-3

2010-11 season
Win-Loss record:  33-22-5 (71 points)
Winning percentage:  .592% (5th place in USHL Western Conference)
Goals for:  195
Goals against:  188
Penalty minute totals:  1,323 (second most in USHL)
Powerplay percentage:  20.37% (ranked 2nd overall out of 16 teams)
Powerplay goals scored:  44
Penalty Kill percentage:  81.60% (ranked 14th overall out of 16 teams)
Shorthanded goals scored:  11
Leading scorer:  Ryan Dzingel 67 points (23g, 44a)
Average home attendance:  3,790 (first overall in the USHL)
Playoffs:  Lost first round series to Fargo, 0-2

It’s interesting that the PP was so good in the first two seasons, but for some reason this year it is really struggling.  Having Kevin Roy last season probably helped a lot.  As many points as Roy scored last season, it’s also interesting that this year’s Stars team scored only 12 goals less than the 2011-12 squad.  That tells me that the 2012-13 team is deeper offensively compared to the 2011-12 top-heavy team.

The PK the last three seasons has been statistically average, to below average.  It would be interesting to guess how much better the Stars’ win-loss record would be this season if their PP and PK units weren’t towards the bottom of the USHL rankings.

When originally hired, Chad Johnson signed a three-year contract to be the head coach/general manager of the Lincoln Stars.  So this current 2012-13 season is the last under the original three-year contract.  So the above is the body of work the Stars have accomplished under Chad Johnson.  I have not heard anything in the news yet about a contract extension.

Thoughts on the above?  Comments are wide open.

12 comments:

lincolnfan said...

i like Chad Johnson and would be happy to have him as a coach for many seasons to come. we've had solid teams the past three seasons. we can't win it all every year, obviously, but last year we gave it a solid effort, and the team seems to be on a hot streak at the moment, which is a big thing at this point in the season, going into the playoffs. of course, i feel i should wait till the season wraps up before really evaluating him on this year.

we have a couple weak points to work on (like the powerplay), but doesn't every team? it's probably just me, but i feel like the Stars have never had a great PP, even under McGroarty or Steve Johnson.. i feel like it's always something we've struggled with. interesting that the stats from last season and the season before beg to differ.

the last thing i want is to start any rumors, but i can't imagine that the Stars organization would be unhappy with Chad's work... i would assume he would be offered an extension and still have a job here if he wanted it, but who knows what goes on behind the scenes, or what he plans to do.

Anonymous said...

Always interesting to look at stats. Another thing to consider is the unbalanced schedule this year. It seems like the western conference is stronger overall. If the USHL played a completely balanced schedule, it wouldn't surprise me if the Stars had an even better record.

Although the team went through a few rough patches, it looks like the team has performed pretty well under the current staff. Also, I would think in the USHL it is tough to be consistent from year to year given the player turnover.

Yeti said...

Anon,

Great point about the unbalanced schedule. I agree that with a more balanced schedule this season, the Stars' record would probably be a little better...since the East is not as deep as the West is.

And you are correct, with the amount of player turnover, it is very hard to stay at the top. It's hard to replace a guy like Kevin Roy, but the Stars have done a good job this season spreading out the scoring.

Yeti said...

lincolnfan,

Thanks for the comment. I too was surprised to see how well the Stars' PP unit performed the last couple of seasons. Which makes their low PP ranking this season that more confusing.

Bill Belgum said...

Chad and his staff have put together solid teams in his 3 years at the helm. If there was a concern on my part, it would not be our PP numbers, it would be our PK numbers. We are the most penalized team in the league because of our style of play (which I happen to like, by the way). That said, if you're going to be short-handed as often as we tend to be, that PK is awful important. I also think we need a goalie coach throughout the year; I'm already seeing a difference since Chris Holt signed on.

Anonymous said...

How are we doing in penalty minutes and majors? Always seems to me that we are leading the league in those two area's no matter who the coach is.

Yeti said...

Anon @ 6:04pm,

I can't believe I forgot to include PIM numbers. Thanks for reminding me. I should be able to find major numbers as well. I'll edit the article above and include those numbers. Thanks again.

Bill,

Agreed about the addition of goaltender Chris Holt. I tweeted this the other day: "Stars are 5-1-0 since they hired goaltending coach Chris Holt. Teichroeb and Bitzer have allowed only 13 goals in those 6 games. Coincidence?"

Anonymous said...

Penalty minute totals: 1,495 (most in USHL) Hell Yeah!!! Now that's what I'm talkin about, I hope McKee gets to 300 this season too!!! Lincoln Hockey Rules!!!

Yeti said...

I think anon at 7:49pm is trolling, but I'm going to post it anyway.

Anonymous said...

Trolling? No way dude, c'mon it's Black and Blue hockey. Lincoln Rules the ice!!!

PigSooie said...

I hope they would not get rid of Johnson. I love the style of play and would hate to ever see Lincoln turn into a finesse team. I am sure the ownership would not let that happen because I feel attendance would drop because you would lose some of the college age crowd that likes rougher play.

Anonymous said...

Sorry to hear that McKee broke his wrist and will be out of the line up. Question is it kind of strainge that a contract extension (if offered) hasn't been made public yet or is it typical of USHL teams to let a coaches contract expire before offering a new deal?